US inflation higher than forecast in October as prices rise 0.4% on the month

US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October 2026 compared with September. The data was published on Tuesday 10 November 2026 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), part of the US Department of Labor. The result was higher than forecast: economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a rise of 0.3%.

Details of the data

In September, CPI rose faster, by 0.6% month on month. Excluding food and energy prices, which fluctuate sharply, core inflation was 0.3% in October, the same as in September. Earlier forecasts had put it at 0.2%.

According to BBC News, the October rise was driven mainly by higher shelter, food and energy costs. Polish reports, meanwhile, say the only items that got cheaper on the month were gas distribution services (down 0.8%) and used cars and trucks (down 1.2%).

No year-on-year figure

The BLS did not publish an annual inflation rate. The reason is the 2025 federal budget shutdown, which prevented data from being collected for October 2025, so analysts have no baseline for a year-on-year comparison. Bankier.pl notes that October 2026 was the 68th month in a row in which US CPI inflation exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Markets and the Fed

Commentators quoted by Polish media believe the data makes an interest rate rise by the Fed in December a certainty. Bankier.pl writes that it would be the second rise this year, and that the market expects the same. This is the commentators' assessment, not a decision by the central bank.

Why it matters outside the US

Fed decisions affect financial markets around the world, including currency exchange rates. However, the sources we used do not describe any direct effects of this data on the UK or on people living in the UK. UK inflation is published separately by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The next release is scheduled for 18 November 2026.