United Surveys poll: KO leads, but without a majority in the Sejm

Koalicja Obywatelska remains at the top of the latest party poll, but the current governing camp would not have a majority in the Sejm. This comes from a United Surveys by IBRiS study commissioned by Wirtualna Polska, which "Rzeczpospolita" reported on 19 October 2026.

Support results

29.7% of respondents say they would back KO. That is 0.9 percentage points lower than in the previous poll from the beginning of October. Second place goes to Prawo i Sprawiedliwość with 17.2% (down 0.8 percentage points). Third is Konfederacja with 13.2%, which is 0.9 percentage points lower than before.

Just behind them is Grzegorz Braun's Konfederacja Korony Polskiej. Standing on its own, it would have 10%, one percentage point more than previously. Lewica would also cross the electoral threshold with 7.3% (0.1 percentage points lower), as would Mateusz Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus with 6.2% (0.5 percentage points higher).

The remaining parties fell below the threshold:

• Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe: 4.4% (unchanged),
• Razem: 3.2% (down 0.7 percentage points),
• Polska 2050: 0.4% (down 0.1 percentage points).

The share of undecided voters rose by 2 percentage points and is now 8.4%.

Distribution of seats

According to a simulation converting support into seats, prepared by Wirtualna Polska, KO and Lewica together would have 218 seats in the Sejm. The four right-wing parties, meanwhile, would have 242 seats. The source does not name those parties in this passage, but the poll results indicate that PiS, Konfederacja, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej and Rozwój Plus crossed the thresholds.

It is worth remembering that a poll shows respondents' preferences at the time of the survey, and the conversion into seats is a simulation, not a forecast of the election result. Different polling firms often show different results, and undecided voters could still change the balance of power.

What this means for Poles in the UK

For now, the poll does not change any rules or regulations affecting Poles in the United Kingdom. For people interested in politics in Poland, it is information about the electoral mood. Poles living abroad can vote in Polish elections if they complete the required formalities, and information about these is published by Polish consular offices.